Astros at Yankees
HOU9–
NYY7Last play · Cody Bellinger flies out to center fielder Daulton Varsho.
Win probability
Yankees0%
HOU 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 3 – 5 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cody Bellinger homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Trent Grisham scores. Luis García Jr. scores. (inning 3) — +35% Yankees
9Yainer Diaz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Cam Smith scores. Yainer Diaz to 2nd. Yainer Diaz advances to 2nd, on a fielding error by left fielder Cody Bellinger.9–7
8Jazz Chisholm Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Spencer Jones scores.8–7
8Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Yordan Alvarez scores.8–6
8Yordan Alvarez triples (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Spencer Jones. Jeremy Peña scores.7–6
8Yainer Diaz homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.6–6
7Luis García Jr. doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to right fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice to 3rd.5–6
6Jeremy Peña homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. Yainer Diaz scores.5–5
5Luis García Jr. homers (27) on a line drive to right field. Ben Rice scores.3–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.