Red Sox at Yankees
Last play · Nick Sogard pops out to shortstop George Lombard Jr.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BOS 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 1 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+142 / -152
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice strikes out swinging. (inning 8) — +12% Yankees
3Paul Goldschmidt homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
