Astros at Yankees
Last play · Amed Rosario flies out sharply to center fielder Daulton Varsho.
Win probability
Yankees0%
HOU 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 0 NYY
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+147 / -158
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker homers (24) on a fly ball to right center field. Daulton Varsho scores. (inning 6) — -24% Astros
8Yainer Diaz reaches on a fielding error by shortstop George Lombard Jr. Christian Walker scores. Throwing error by third baseman José Caballero.5–1
7Jeremy Peña homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.4–1
6Cody Bellinger out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Ben Rice scores.3–1
6Christian Walker homers (24) on a fly ball to right center field. Daulton Varsho scores.3–0
3Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Jones. Jeremy Peña scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
