Red Sox at Yankees
Last play · Adley Rutschman grounds out, third baseman Amed Rosario to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BOS 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 5 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-141 / +131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Paul Goldschmidt singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. José Caballero scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. (inning 5) — +25% Yankees
8Austin Wells homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.1–16
8José Caballero homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Luis García Jr. scores. Amed Rosario scores.1–14
8Trent Grisham out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Spencer Jones scores.1–11
8Paul Goldschmidt homers (18) on a fly ball to right field.1–10
8Austin Wells homers (9) on a line drive to right field. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.1–9
8Nick Sogard singles on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Jones. Trevor Story scores.1–7
7Amed Rosario singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Spencer Jones scores. Luis García Jr. to 2nd.0–7
6Austin Wells out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. José Caballero scores.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
