Nationals at Phillies
Last play · James Wood lines out sharply to left fielder Brandon Marsh.
Win probability
Phillies100%
WSH 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 3 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -199
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · James Wood doubles (2) on a sharp ground ball to first baseman Bryce Harper, deflected by pitcher Tanner Banks. Nasim Nuñez scores. (inning 7) — -14% Nationals
7James Wood doubles (2) on a sharp ground ball to first baseman Bryce Harper, deflected by pitcher Tanner Banks. Nasim Nuñez scores.2–3
6Daylen Lile singles on a line drive to right fielder Adolis García. CJ Abrams scores. Daylen Lile to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Adolis García.1–3
5Bryce Harper reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Luis García Jr. Justin Crawford scores. Trea Turner to 3rd. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd.0–3
4Adolis García homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
3Kyle Schwarber homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
