Nationals at Phillies
Last play · Justin Crawford singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Joey Wiemer. Brandon Marsh scores. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.
Win probability
Phillies100%
WSH 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 1 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+228 / -285
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Edmundo Sosa singles on a line drive to left fielder James Wood. Trea Turner scores. Dylan Moore scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd. Edmundo Sosa to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder James Wood. (inning 9) — +49% Phillies
10Justin Crawford singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Joey Wiemer. Brandon Marsh scores. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.5–6
9Edmundo Sosa singles on a line drive to left fielder James Wood. Trea Turner scores. Dylan Moore scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd. Edmundo Sosa to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder James Wood.5–5
8Bryce Harper homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.5–3
7J.T. Realmuto homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.5–2
7CJ Abrams homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Daylen Lile scores. Joey Wiemer scores.5–1
6Drew Millas singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Jacob Young scores.2–1
2Drew Millas strikes out swinging. Joey Wiemer scores.1–1
1Phillies challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Kyle Schwarber doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Joey Wiemer. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Joey Wiemer to shortstop CJ Abrams to third baseman Brady House.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
