D-backs at Phillies
Last play · Trea Turner flies out to left fielder Tim Tawa.
Win probability
Phillies0%
AZ 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 5 – 4 PHI
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · James McCann doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Ketel Marte scores. Ildemaro Vargas scores. (inning 5) — -31% D-backs
5James McCann doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Ketel Marte scores. Ildemaro Vargas scores.5–4
5Ildemaro Vargas singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Alek Thomas scores. Ketel Marte to 2nd.3–4
5Ketel Marte singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Jose Fernandez scores. Tim Tawa scores. Alek Thomas to 2nd.2–4
1Brandon Marsh homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper scores.0–4
1Bryce Harper doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Jorge Barrosa. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
