D-backs at Phillies
Last play · Jorge Barrosa strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Phillies100%
AZ 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Schwarber homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Alec Bohm scores. Justin Crawford scores. (inning 3) — +35% Phillies
8Jose Fernandez singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Adrian Del Castillo to 3rd.3–4
3Bryce Harper homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.2–4
3Kyle Schwarber homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Alec Bohm scores. Justin Crawford scores.2–3
1Adrian Del Castillo singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Corbin Carroll scores.2–0
1Ketel Marte homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
