Cubs at Phillies
Last play · Edmundo Sosa grounds into a double play, third baseman Alex Bregman to second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Bryson Stott out at 2nd. Edmundo Sosa out at 1st.
Win probability
Phillies0%
CHC 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 3 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
10
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Carson Kelly scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. (inning 6) — -29% Cubs
9Carson Kelly homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Seiya Suzuki scores. Miguel Amaya scores.10–4
8Trea Turner singles on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Edmundo Sosa scores.7–4
6Alex Bregman singles on a ground ball to right fielder Adolis García. Dansby Swanson scores. Nico Hoerner scores. Michael Busch to 2nd.7–3
6Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Carson Kelly scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd.5–3
5Alex Bregman singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Dansby Swanson scores. Michael Busch to 2nd.3–3
3Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Ian Happ doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Michael Busch scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.2–3
3Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–3
2Edmundo Sosa homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Brandon Marsh scores. J.T. Realmuto scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
