Cubs at Phillies
CHC11–
PHI2Last play · Rafael Marchán grounds out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Phillies0%
CHC 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 5 – 1 PHI
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Seiya Suzuki strikes out swinging. (inning 3) — -26% Cubs
9Bryce Harper homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.11–2
9Dansby Swanson grounds out, pitcher Dylan Moore to shortstop Edmundo Sosa to first baseman Bryce Harper. Seiya Suzuki scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.11–1
7Dansby Swanson homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.10–1
6Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to right fielder Adolis García. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Matt Shaw scores.9–1
6Matt Shaw doubles (4) on a ground ball to right fielder Adolis García. Dansby Swanson scores. Miguel Amaya scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd.7–1
5Nico Hoerner homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Matt Shaw scores.5–1
3Seiya Suzuki strikes out swinging.3–1
3Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to center fielder Brandon Marsh. Matt Shaw scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.