Braves at Phillies
Last play · Kyle Schwarber grounds out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Phillies0%
ATL 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 7 – 0 PHI
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Riley homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Matt Olson scores. (inning 2) — -13% Braves
9Austin Riley homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.9–0
8Michael Harris II homers (3) on a line drive to right center field.8–0
3Dominic Smith homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.7–0
2Austin Riley homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Matt Olson scores.6–0
2Matt Olson singles on a line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Michael Harris II scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. to 2nd.3–0
1Mike Yastrzemski singles on a ground ball to second baseman Edmundo Sosa, deflected by pitcher Taijuan Walker. Drake Baldwin scores. Matt Olson to 3rd.2–0
1Ozzie Albies grounds out, second baseman Edmundo Sosa to first baseman Bryce Harper. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Drake Baldwin to 3rd. Matt Olson to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
