Braves at Phillies
Last play · Kyle Schwarber lines out sharply to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr.
Win probability
Phillies0%
ATL 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 4 – 2 PHI
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Kyle Schwarber homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Trea Turner scores. (inning 1) — +17% Phillies
5Ozzie Albies doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Matt Olson scores. Austin Riley to 3rd.4–2
5Austin Riley singles on a ground ball to third baseman Alec Bohm. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Matt Olson to 2nd.3–2
5Matt Olson grounds into a force out, second baseman Bryson Stott to shortstop Trea Turner. Michael Harris II scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. to 3rd. Drake Baldwin out at 2nd. Matt Olson to 1st.2–2
3Michael Harris II homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
1Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Kyle Schwarber homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Trea Turner scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
