Braves at Phillies
Last play · Rafael Marchán flies out to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr.
Win probability
Phillies0%
ATL 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 1 PHI
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mauricio Dubón singles on a fly ball to center fielder Brandon Marsh. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson scores. Austin Riley to 2nd. (inning 3) — -26% Braves
3Mauricio Dubón singles on a fly ball to center fielder Brandon Marsh. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson scores. Austin Riley to 2nd.3–1
3Austin Riley singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Cristopher Sánchez. Drake Baldwin scores. Ozzie Albies to 3rd. Matt Olson to 2nd.1–1
2Felix Reyes homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
