Giants at Phillies
Last play · Matt Chapman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
SF 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 1 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Marsh out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Trea Turner scores. (inning 4) — +13% Phillies
8Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Justin Crawford scores. Rafael Marchán to 2nd.0–7
8Justin Crawford singles on a line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Brandon Marsh scores.0–6
6Alec Bohm doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Adolis García scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd.0–5
6Adolis García doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper scores.0–4
6Bryce Harper doubles (6) on a fly ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd.0–2
4Brandon Marsh out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Trea Turner scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
