Rockies at Phillies
Last play · Rockies challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Brett Sullivan strikes out swinging, catcher J.T. Realmuto to first baseman Felix Reyes.
Win probability
Phillies100%
COL 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 3 – 7 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+157 / -192
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Schwarber homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Bryson Stott scores. Trea Turner scores. (inning 3) — +27% Phillies
8Alec Bohm doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Brandon Marsh scores. J.T. Realmuto scores.3–9
5Brandon Marsh out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Troy Johnston. Adolis García scores. Edmundo Sosa to 2nd.3–7
4Alec Bohm homers (3) on a line drive to left center field.3–6
4Kyle Karros doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Edmundo Sosa. Troy Johnston scores. Jake McCarthy scores.3–5
3Edmundo Sosa singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Adolis García scores.1–5
3Kyle Schwarber homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Bryson Stott scores. Trea Turner scores.1–4
3Alec Bohm homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
2Willi Castro homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
