Rockies at Phillies
Last play · Bryce Harper grounds out, second baseman Edouard Julien to first baseman TJ Rumfield.
Win probability
Phillies0%
COL 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 6 – 0 PHI
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 47.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+189 / -232
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Crawford homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryson Stott scores. (inning 8) — +45% Phillies
11Jake McCarthy singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Troy Johnston scores.9–7
11Troy Johnston doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Willi Castro scores.8–7
8Justin Crawford homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryson Stott scores.7–7
8Bryson Stott doubles (4) on a line drive to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Adolis García scores. Brandon Marsh scores.7–5
8Brandon Marsh singles on a line drive to left fielder Jordan Beck. Bryce Harper scores. Adolis García to 2nd.7–3
7Tyler Freeman homers (2) on a line drive to left center field.7–2
6J.T. Realmuto doubles (4) on a fly ball to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Brandon Marsh scores.6–2
6Kyle Schwarber homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.6–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
