Reds at Phillies
CIN4–
PHI5Last play · TJ Friedl grounds out, shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Phillies100%
CIN 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 2 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
10
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryson Stott homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Edmundo Sosa scores. (inning 8) — +61% Phillies
8Bryson Stott homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Edmundo Sosa scores.4–5
8Spencer Steer doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Matt McLain scores.4–3
7Sal Stewart homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.3–3
6Alec Bohm homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
2TJ Friedl out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Nathaniel Lowe scores.2–2
2Tyler Stephenson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Adolis García. Sal Stewart scores. Nathaniel Lowe to 3rd.1–2
1Adolis García out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Spencer Steer. Bryce Harper scores.0–2
1Edmundo Sosa out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder TJ Friedl. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.