Reds at Phillies
CIN4–
PHI1Last play · Tyler Stephenson challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Alec Bohm called out on strikes.
Win probability
Phillies0%
CIN 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 1 PHI
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · JJ Bleday out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Spencer Steer scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. (inning 4) — -14% Reds
7Elly De La Cruz walks. Tyler Stephenson scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd.4–1
7Reds challenged (force play), call on the field was overturned: Matt McLain reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Bryce Harper. Blake Dunn scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Ke'Bryan Hayes to 2nd.3–1
4JJ Bleday out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Spencer Steer scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd.2–1
4Dane Myers out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Adolis García in foul territory. Elly De La Cruz scores. Spencer Steer to 3rd. Sal Stewart to 2nd.1–1
3Trea Turner homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.