Rockies at Phillies
Last play · Mickey Moniak strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
COL 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 5 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+248 / -314
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 1) — +9% Phillies
6Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to third baseman Kyle Karros. Brandon Marsh scores.0–6
2Kyle Schwarber homers (16) on a line drive to right center field.0–5
2Trea Turner out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Alec Bohm scores.0–4
2Justin Crawford grounds out to first baseman Willi Castro. Alec Bohm to 3rd.0–3
1Bryce Harper homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
1Kyle Schwarber homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
