Reds at Phillies
CIN9–
PHI4Last play · Justin Crawford strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies0%
CIN 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 4 – 1 PHI
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Edmundo Sosa homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Brandon Marsh scores. (inning 6) — +28% Phillies
9Sal Stewart homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. JJ Bleday scores.9–4
7Nathaniel Lowe doubles (8) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Brandon Marsh. JJ Bleday scores. Sal Stewart scores.7–4
6Edmundo Sosa homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Brandon Marsh scores.5–4
6Alec Bohm homers (5) on a line drive to left field.5–2
6Dane Myers doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Blake Dunn scores.5–1
4P.J. Higgins singles on a line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Blake Dunn scores.4–1
2P.J. Higgins singles on a line drive to left fielder Otto Kemp. Nathaniel Lowe scores.3–1
2Will Benson grounds out, first baseman Alec Bohm to pitcher Aaron Nola. Spencer Steer scores. Nathaniel Lowe to 3rd.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.