Guardians at Phillies
Last play · Bryce Harper grounds out to first baseman Kyle Manzardo.
Win probability
Phillies0%
CLE 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 0 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Manzardo homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 9) — -34% Guardians
9Kyle Manzardo homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
