Padres at Phillies
Last play · Jase Bowen strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
SD 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 2 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+128 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Trea Turner scores. (inning 4) — +27% Phillies
6Alec Bohm grounds into a double play, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to second baseman Sung-Mun Song to first baseman Gavin Sheets. Bryce Harper scores. Brandon Marsh out at 2nd. Alec Bohm out at 1st.2–3
4Bryce Harper homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Trea Turner scores.2–2
3Gavin Sheets homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
