Guardians at Phillies
Last play · Trea Turner strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies0%
CLE 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 1 – 0 PHI
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Petey Halpin. Brandon Marsh scores. Trea Turner to 3rd. (inning 7) — +16% Phillies
8Travis Bazzana homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.3–1
7Bryce Harper out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Petey Halpin. Brandon Marsh scores. Trea Turner to 3rd.2–1
6Rhys Hoskins doubles (9) on a ground ball to left fielder Edmundo Sosa. Chase DeLauter scores. Rhys Hoskins out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder Edmundo Sosa to second baseman Bryson Stott to catcher J.T. Realmuto to third baseman Alec Bohm.2–0
5Steven Kwan singles on a line drive to left fielder Edmundo Sosa. Daniel Schneemann scores. David Fry to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
