Padres at Phillies
SD4–
PHI6Last play · Jase Bowen strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
SD 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 3 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+178 / -219
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Gavin Sheets scores. (inning 7) — -19% Padres
9Jackson Merrill homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Ty France scores.4–6
7Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Bryce Harper scores. Brandon Marsh to 2nd.2–6
7Brandon Marsh reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Ty France. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 2nd.2–5
7Trea Turner singles on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Johnson. Justin Crawford scores.2–4
7Manny Machado homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Gavin Sheets scores.2–3
5Brandon Marsh called out on strikes.0–3
5Adolis García homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2
4Bryson Stott singles on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Bryce Harper scores. Brandon Marsh to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.