Padres at Phillies
Last play · Samad Taylor strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
SD 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 1 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7 ↑
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+194 / -239
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.T. Realmuto homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 7) — +31% Phillies
8Xander Bogaerts hit by pitch. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Miguel Andujar to 3rd. Gavin Sheets to 2nd.2–3
7Kyle Schwarber homers (23) on a fly ball to right center field.1–3
7J.T. Realmuto homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
7Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Ty France scores.1–1
5Adolis García doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Bryson Stott scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
