Marlins at Phillies
Last play · Connor Norby called out on strikes.
Win probability
Phillies100%
MIA 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 5 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+162 / -198
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gabriel Rincones Jr. grounds into a force out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to shortstop Otto Lopez. Brandon Marsh scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto out at 2nd. Gabriel Rincones Jr. to 1st. (inning 3) — +12% Phillies
8Bryce Harper out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Heriberto Hernández. Edmundo Sosa scores.0–7
8Alec Bohm out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Heriberto Hernández. Justin Crawford scores. Edmundo Sosa to 3rd.0–6
5J.T. Realmuto homers (5) on a line drive to left field. Bryson Stott scores.0–5
3Justin Crawford singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Bryson Stott scores. Gabriel Rincones Jr. to 3rd.0–3
3Gabriel Rincones Jr. grounds into a force out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to shortstop Otto Lopez. Brandon Marsh scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto out at 2nd. Gabriel Rincones Jr. to 1st.0–2
2Gabriel Rincones Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
