Marlins at Phillies
Last play · Connor Norby grounds out, pitcher Max Lazar to first baseman Kyle Schwarber.
Win probability
Phillies100%
MIA 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 8 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryson Stott triples (3) on a fly ball to right fielder Heriberto Hernández. Bryce Harper scores. Alec Bohm scores. (inning 1) — +16% Phillies
7Esteury Ruiz homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Leo Jiménez scores.2–8
4Kyle Schwarber homers (25) on a line drive to right field.0–8
2Alec Bohm homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Kyle Schwarber scores.0–7
2Brandon Marsh homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Edmundo Sosa scores.0–5
1Bryson Stott triples (3) on a fly ball to right fielder Heriberto Hernández. Bryce Harper scores. Alec Bohm scores.0–3
1Alec Bohm singles on a fly ball to right fielder Heriberto Hernández. Brandon Marsh scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
