Marlins at Phillies
MIA12–
PHI4Last play · Rafael Marchán strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies0%
MIA 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 6 – 4 PHI
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+103 / -124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Stowers homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Otto Lopez scores. (inning 1) — -21% Marlins
9Jakob Marsee homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.12–4
8Kyle Stowers singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Joe Mack scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd. Otto Lopez to 2nd.11–4
6Kyle Stowers homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.10–4
6Otto Lopez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Esteury Ruiz scores.9–4
6Joe Mack homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Jakob Marsee scores.8–4
2Brandon Marsh lines out to third baseman Javier Sanoja. Garrett Stubbs scores. Trea Turner to 3rd. Bryce Harper to 2nd. Missed catch error by first baseman Kyle Stowers, assist to third baseman Javier Sanoja.6–4
2Kyle Schwarber strikes out swinging.6–3
2Xavier Edwards singles on a ground ball to third baseman Alec Bohm. Liam Hicks scores. Kyle Stowers to 3rd.6–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.