Mets at Phillies
Last play · Francisco Alvarez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
NYM 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 6 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+149 / -181
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Schwarber homers (29) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryson Stott scores. Trea Turner scores. (inning 2) — +15% Phillies
6A.J. Ewing grounds into a force out, first baseman Bryce Harper to shortstop Trea Turner. Carson Benge scores. Juan Soto to 3rd. Jared Young out at 2nd. A.J. Ewing to 1st.2–6
5Bryce Harper homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.1–6
3Carson Benge homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
2Kyle Schwarber homers (29) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryson Stott scores. Trea Turner scores.0–5
1Edmundo Sosa singles on a ground ball to shortstop Bo Bichette. Kyle Schwarber scores. Alec Bohm to 2nd.0–2
1Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to third baseman Brett Baty. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd. Throwing error by third baseman Brett Baty.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
