Mets at Phillies
Last play · Kyle Schwarber lines out sharply to right fielder Brett Baty.
Win probability
Phillies0%
NYM 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 3 – 3 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+103 / -124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcus Semien triples (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Mark Vientos scores. Zack Short scores. (inning 7) — -22% Mets
9Justin Crawford singles on a line drive to center fielder Carson Benge. J.T. Realmuto scores. Gabriel Rincones Jr. to 2nd.6–4
7Marcus Semien triples (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Mark Vientos scores. Zack Short scores.6–3
7Eric Wagaman singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Derek Hill. Carson Benge scores. Mark Vientos to 2nd.4–3
4Derek Hill singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Bryson Stott scores. Derek Hill to 2nd. Derek Hill advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by center fielder A.J. Ewing.3–3
3Alec Bohm doubles (10) on a fly ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Kyle Schwarber scores.3–2
3Juan Soto homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.3–1
1Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 2nd.2–1
1A.J. Ewing doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Marsh. Jared Young scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
