Mets at Phillies
NYM3–
PHI15Last play · Zack Short strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
NYM 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 13 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+162 / -198
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.T. Realmuto doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Juan Soto. Alec Bohm scores. (inning 2) — +10% Phillies
7Kyle Schwarber homers (28) on a fly ball to right field. Trea Turner scores.3–15
7Carson Benge homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Mark Vientos scores.3–13
5Bryce Harper triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Carson Benge. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber scores.1–13
4Mark Vientos homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.1–11
3Kyle Schwarber homers (27) on a fly ball to right center field. Justin Crawford scores. Trea Turner scores.0–11
3Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. J.T. Realmuto scores. Justin Crawford to 2nd.0–8
3J.T. Realmuto doubles (6) on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Bryson Stott scores.0–7
3Bryson Stott doubles (14) on a fly ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Brandon Marsh scores.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.