Pirates at Phillies
Last play · Jared Triolo strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
PIT 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 8 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Crawford reaches on a fielder's choice. Alec Bohm scores. Bryson Stott scores. Gabriel Rincones Jr. to 3rd. Justin Crawford to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Nick Gonzales. (inning 2) — +20% Phillies
8Alec Bohm homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Brandon Marsh scores.6–10
7Jared Triolo doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Nick Gonzales scores. Jake Mangum scores.6–8
5Jared Triolo hit by pitch. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd. Jake Mangum to 2nd.4–8
5Nick Gonzales singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Esmerlyn Valdez scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.3–8
4Bryce Harper doubles (15) on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Gabriel Rincones Jr. scores. Trea Turner scores.2–8
3Brandon Marsh homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.2–6
3Bryan Reynolds singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Konnor Griffin scores.2–5
3Henry Davis homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
