Pirates at Phillies
Last play · Billy Cook pops out to third baseman Alec Bohm in foul territory.
Win probability
Phillies100%
PIT 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 2 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+191 / -235
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Crawford singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Alec Bohm scores. J.T. Realmuto scores. Gabriel Rincones Jr. to 2nd. (inning 2) — +20% Phillies
8Trea Turner homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Justin Crawford scores.0–8
8Justin Crawford singles on a line drive to center fielder Billy Cook. Bryson Stott scores.0–6
7Brandon Marsh grounds into a force out, pitcher Isaac Mattson to shortstop Konnor Griffin. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper out at 2nd. Brandon Marsh to 1st.0–5
7Bryce Harper singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd.0–4
7Trea Turner doubles (15) on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Derek Hill scores.0–3
2Justin Crawford singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Alec Bohm scores. J.T. Realmuto scores. Gabriel Rincones Jr. to 2nd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
