Pirates at Phillies
Last play · Brandon Marsh strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies0%
PIT 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 8 – 5 PHI
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Callihan grounds into a force out, first baseman Bryce Harper to shortstop Trea Turner. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Esmerlyn Valdez scores. Endy Rodríguez out at 2nd. Tyler Callihan to 1st. Throwing error by shortstop Trea Turner. (inning 5) — -21% Pirates
9Endy Rodríguez homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Billy Cook scores.11–7
8J.T. Realmuto singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Bryson Stott scores.8–7
8Brandon Marsh homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.8–6
5Tyler Callihan grounds into a force out, first baseman Bryce Harper to shortstop Trea Turner. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Esmerlyn Valdez scores. Endy Rodríguez out at 2nd. Tyler Callihan to 1st. Throwing error by shortstop Trea Turner.8–5
5Endy Rodríguez walks. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd. Esmerlyn Valdez to 2nd.6–5
5Ryan O'Hearn singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Konnor Griffin scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.5–5
5Brandon Lowe out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Jake Mangum scores.4–5
5Jared Triolo homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.3–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
