Pirates at Phillies
PIT6–
PHI1Last play · Bryson Stott called out on strikes.
Win probability
Phillies0%
PIT 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 1 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Esmerlyn Valdez triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Brandon Lowe scores. (inning 7) — -19% Pirates
9Nick Gonzales homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.6–1
8Esmerlyn Valdez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Jake Mangum scores. Brandon Lowe to 3rd.5–1
8Endy Rodríguez homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.4–1
7Nick Gonzales singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Esmerlyn Valdez scores.3–1
7Esmerlyn Valdez triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Brandon Lowe scores.2–1
5Esmerlyn Valdez singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Jake Mangum scores. Brandon Lowe to 3rd.1–1
3Bryce Harper doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Rafael Marchán scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.