Mets at Phillies
Last play · Marcus Semien grounds out softly, catcher J.T. Realmuto to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Phillies100%
NYM 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Schwarber homers (33) on a fly ball to right field. Trea Turner scores. (inning 1) — +17% Phillies
6Bryce Harper singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Bryson Stott scores. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd.1–6
5Alec Bohm singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Tyrone Taylor. Kyle Schwarber scores.1–4
5Trea Turner homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
2Tyrone Taylor homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
1Kyle Schwarber homers (33) on a fly ball to right field. Trea Turner scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
