Mets at Phillies
Last play · Alec Bohm strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies0%
NYM 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 0 PHI
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Baty homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 7) — -23% Mets
9A.J. Ewing doubles (10) on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Jared Young scores.4–1
8Trea Turner homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
7Francisco Alvarez homers (11) on a line drive to left field.3–0
7Brett Baty homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.2–0
3Francisco Alvarez homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
