Mets at Phillies
Last play · J.T. Realmuto grounds out, third baseman Bo Bichette to first baseman Brett Baty.
Win probability
Phillies0%
NYM 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 5 – 0 PHI
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Francisco Lindor homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Bo Bichette scores. (inning 1) — -21% Mets
7Alec Bohm homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.6–1
6Juan Soto singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Luis Torrens scores. A.J. Ewing to 3rd.6–0
2Carson Benge out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Juan Soto scores. Bo Bichette to 3rd. Francisco Lindor to 2nd.5–0
2Francisco Lindor singles on a line drive to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Luis Torrens scores. Juan Soto to 3rd. Bo Bichette to 2nd.4–0
2Luis Torrens doubles (11) on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Brett Baty scores.3–0
1Francisco Lindor homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Bo Bichette scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
