Dodgers at Phillies
Last play · Trea Turner strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies0%
LAD 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 3 – 3 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dalton Rushing doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Teoscar Hernández scores. Tommy Edman scores. (inning 5) — -31% Dodgers
9J.T. Realmuto singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Teoscar Hernández, deflected by shortstop Mookie Betts. Brandon Marsh scores.9–5
8Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 2nd.9–4
8Tommy Edman triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Freddie Freeman scores. Mookie Betts scores. Teoscar Hernández scores.9–3
8Kyle Tucker out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Derek Hill. Andy Pages scores.6–3
6Max Muncy homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Freddie Freeman scores.5–3
5Bryan De La Cruz homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
5Dalton Rushing doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Teoscar Hernández scores. Tommy Edman scores.3–2
3Dalton Rushing homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
