Dodgers at Phillies
Last play · Brandon Marsh hit into a fielder's choice double play, third baseman Max Muncy to catcher Dalton Rushing to shortstop Mookie Betts to second baseman Tommy Edman. Justin Crawford out at home. J.T. Realmuto out at 3rd. Brandon Marsh to 1st.
Win probability
Phillies0%
LAD 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 2 – 1 PHI
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-106 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Muncy homers (19) on a fly ball to center field. Andy Pages scores. (inning 4) — -26% Dodgers
4Max Muncy homers (19) on a fly ball to center field. Andy Pages scores.2–1
1Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alex Call. Bryce Harper scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
