Dodgers at Phillies
LAD7–
PHI10Last play · Teoscar Hernández grounds out sharply, shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Phillies100%
LAD 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Marsh homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 6) — +21% Phillies
9Mookie Betts homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Eliezer Alfonzo scores.7–10
9Eliezer Alfonzo grounds into a force out, second baseman Bryson Stott to shortstop Trea Turner. Andy Pages scores. Tommy Edman out at 2nd. Eliezer Alfonzo to 1st.5–10
8Derek Hill homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.4–10
7Bryce Harper homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field.4–9
7Mookie Betts homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.4–8
6Trea Turner homers (14) on a line drive to left field. Bryson Stott scores. Derek Hill scores.3–8
6Brandon Marsh homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field.3–5
6Andy Pages reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Trea Turner. Teoscar Hernández scores. Max Muncy to 3rd. Shohei Ohtani to 2nd.3–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.