Yankees at Phillies
Last play · Brandon Marsh grounds out, shortstop José Caballero to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Phillies0%
NYY 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 1 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jasson Domínguez homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 7) — -23% Yankees
7Jasson Domínguez homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
6Cody Bellinger singles on a line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Austin Wells scores. Paul Goldschmidt to 2nd.2–1
3Austin Wells homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Bryce Harper out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
