Yankees at Phillies
Last play · Jasson Domínguez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
NYY 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 3 – 6 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+177 / -218
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Bohm doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper scores. Brandon Marsh scores. (inning 3) — +14% Phillies
7Ben Rice homers (31) on a fly ball to center field.4–11
6Bryson Stott doubles (20) on a line drive to right fielder Jasson Domínguez. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber scores. Alec Bohm scores.3–11
6Alec Bohm hit by pitch. Justin Crawford scores. Trea Turner to 3rd. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd.3–8
6Trea Turner singles on a line drive to left fielder Max Schuemann. Bryan De La Cruz scores. Justin Crawford to 2nd.3–7
5Anthony Volpe doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Amed Rosario scores.3–6
5Jasson Domínguez grounds out, third baseman Alec Bohm to first baseman Bryce Harper. Ben Rice scores. Amed Rosario to 3rd.2–6
5Amed Rosario singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Ben Rice to 3rd. Amed Rosario to 2nd.1–6
3Bryson Stott singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jasson Domínguez. Alec Bohm scores.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
