Nationals at Phillies
WSH0–
PHI5Last play · José Tena challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: José Tena called out on strikes.
Win probability
Phillies100%
WSH 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+282 / -304
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Arraez doubles (24) on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews, deflected by first baseman Andrés Chaparro. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd. (inning 3) — +12% Phillies
7Trea Turner singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Justin Crawford scores.0–5
3Brandon Marsh doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Luis Arraez scores.0–4
3Alec Bohm out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Bryce Harper scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.0–3
3Luis Arraez doubles (24) on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews, deflected by first baseman Andrés Chaparro. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd.0–2
1Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.