Nationals at Phillies
Last play · Garrett Stubbs challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Jacob Young called out on strikes.
Win probability
Phillies100%
WSH 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 3 – 0 PHI
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Derek Hill hits a grand slam (9) to left center field. Bryan De La Cruz scores. Bryson Stott scores. Edmundo Sosa scores. (inning 7) — +70% Phillies
8Bryce Harper homers (24) on a fly ball to center field. Justin Crawford scores.3–6
7Derek Hill hits a grand slam (9) to left center field. Bryan De La Cruz scores. Bryson Stott scores. Edmundo Sosa scores.3–4
2Daylen Lile homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Keibert Ruiz scores.3–0
1Abimelec Ortiz homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
