Nationals at Phillies
Last play · Abimelec Ortiz flies out to center fielder Justin Crawford.
Win probability
Phillies100%
WSH 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 6 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+303 / -332
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jacob Young singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Harry Ford scores. (inning 2) — -11% Nationals
6Kyle Schwarber singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Bryson Stott scores.3–7
6Keibert Ruiz singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Jacob Young scores. Nasim Nuñez to 3rd.3–6
4Andrew Pinckney homers (1) on a line drive to right center field.2–6
3Bryson Stott doubles (23) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. J.T. Realmuto scores.1–6
3J.T. Realmuto singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Brandon Marsh scores.1–5
3Brandon Marsh doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Bryce Harper scores.1–4
2Justin Crawford singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. J.T. Realmuto scores.1–3
2Jacob Young singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Harry Ford scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
