Nationals at Phillies
Last play · Brandon Marsh flies out to left fielder Daylen Lile.
Win probability
Phillies0%
WSH 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 2 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+175 / -187
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · CJ Abrams triples (3) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Brady House scores. Jacob Young scores. (inning 11) — -44% Nationals
11Nasim Nuñez grounds out, shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Alec Bohm. Harry Ford scores. Andrés Chaparro to 3rd.10–4
11Andrés Chaparro doubles (6) on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Miles Mikolas scores. Dylan Crews scores. Harry Ford to 3rd.9–4
11Miles Mikolas hits a sacrifice bunt. CJ Abrams scores. Miles Mikolas to 1st.7–4
11CJ Abrams triples (3) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Brady House scores. Jacob Young scores.6–4
10Trea Turner out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dylan Crews. Derek Hill scores.4–4
10Nasim Nuñez walks. Andrew Pinckney scores. Daylen Lile to 3rd. Andrés Chaparro to 2nd.4–3
7Bryson Stott singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Alec Bohm scores. Brandon Marsh to 2nd.3–3
7CJ Abrams singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Jacob Young scores. CJ Abrams to 2nd.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
