Blue Jays at Phillies
Last play · Phillies challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Brandon Marsh grounds out, second baseman Ernie Clement to pitcher Tyler Rogers.
Win probability
Phillies0%
TOR 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 2 PHI
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+187 / -202
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrés Giménez homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — -15% Blue Jays
9Bryce Harper singles on a ground ball to second baseman Ernie Clement. Justin Crawford scores. Trea Turner to 2nd.5–4
9Trea Turner grounds into a force out, first baseman Kazuma Okamoto to shortstop Andrés Giménez. Bryson Stott scores. Justin Crawford to 3rd. Derek Hill out at 2nd. Trea Turner to 1st.5–3
8Josh Smith homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.5–2
6Alejandro Kirk out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Bryce Harper. Josh Smith scores. Brett Bateman to 3rd.4–2
4Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Josh Smith scores. Brett Bateman to 3rd.3–2
3Bryce Harper singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Kyle Schwarber scores.2–2
3Alejandro Kirk out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Brett Bateman scores.2–1
2J.T. Realmuto singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Brandon Marsh scores. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd. Fielding error by left fielder Jesús Sánchez.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
