Marlins at Phillies
Last play · Leo Jiménez grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Luis Arraez. Otto Lopez out at 2nd.
Win probability
Phillies100%
MIA 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 2 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+232 / -252
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marlins challenged (fair or foul in outfield), call on the field was overturned: Javier Sanoja doubles (26) on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Harper. Xavier Edwards scores. Agustín Ramírez scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd. (inning 7) — -19% Marlins
9Otto Lopez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Xavier Edwards scores.5–6
8Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Bryce Harper scores.4–6
8Brian Navarreto homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.4–5
7Victor Vodnik challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Derek Hill walks. Alec Bohm scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.3–5
7Marlins challenged (fair or foul in outfield), call on the field was overturned: Javier Sanoja doubles (26) on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Harper. Xavier Edwards scores. Agustín Ramírez scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd.3–4
6Kyle Schwarber out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. J.T. Realmuto scores. Derek Hill to 2nd.1–4
6Derek Hill singles on a ground ball to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. Bryson Stott scores. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd.1–3
6Griffin Conine singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Otto Lopez scores. Leo Jiménez to 2nd.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
