Blue Jays at Phillies
Last play · Edmundo Sosa flies out to center fielder Brett Bateman.
Win probability
Phillies0%
TOR 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 0 PHI
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+157 / -168
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Lukes homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Valenzuela scores. (inning 11) — -44% Blue Jays
11Nathan Lukes homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Valenzuela scores.7–5
10Luis Arraez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brett Bateman. Trea Turner scores.5–5
10Andrés Giménez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Brett Bateman scores.5–4
8Andrés Giménez doubles (18) on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. George Springer scores.4–4
6Justin Crawford triples (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Brett Bateman. Bryson Stott scores.2–4
6Brandon Marsh out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Luis Arraez scores.2–3
6Bryce Harper homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
6Trea Turner homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
